Tuesday 27 January 2015

One For the Ages: Seahawks Compete Improbable Comeback in NFC Championship

As I sat to watch this game, I was feeling quite confident that the Seahawks would knock off Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers en route to their second consecutive Super Bowl.  As the game progressed, and as the Seahawks offense sputtered, and the defense were forced to contend with short fields due to turnovers, I must admit, I started to get a bit of an uneasy feeling.  However, I never gave up hope, and like just about everyone I've spoken to since is claiming to, I had a feeling they would come back, I must admit things looked quite bleak at 16-0.  Not just because of the score, but because of how terrible the Seahawks' offence looked.  Not only were they not scoring or even moving the ball efficiently, they were turning the ball over time and again and gifting the Packers fantastic field position.  The Seattle defense kept them alive by holding the Packers to field goals instead of touchdowns and the team had a pulse, however faint.

What is most amazing to me about this game is
 how many rare and improbable plays had to fall into place for the Seahawks to get back in the game, take the lead, and eventually win it in overtime.

I mean, how often do you see a team fake a field goal?  Maybe 2 or 3 times league-wide during an entire season?  The chances of the holder, in this case Canadian punter Jon Ryan, completing the pass, maybe 20%? For a 1st down? We're looking at 10% at best. But for a touchdown? Gotta be less than 5%, right?

They also got a 1st down on a play where they were 31yds from moving the sticks.  This doesn't happen very often.  The Packers decided to be conservative (a theme throughout) and play a prevent defense rushing only 3.  Somehow they left WR Doug Baldwin open and Russell Wilson found him for the 1st down.  This, obviously, isn't as rare as a fake field goal touchdown pass, but the conversion rate with 31 yards to go isn't very high.

We also saw a successful on-side kick recovered late in the game when Packers TE/special teamer Brandon Bostick messed up his assignment and, instead of blocking Seahawks WR Jordan Matthews, stepped in front of sure-handed teammate Jordy Nelson and took the ball off his grill and helplessly watched it fall into Matthews' arms and into the Seahawks' possession.  Okay, success rate of on-side kicks?  According to Advanced Football Analytics, the success rate of on-side kicks in situations when the receiving team is expecting the play, which was clearly the case here, is about 20% or less. Somehow, the Seahawks, through luck, determination, or destiny, found a way to get their mitts on the ball for the recovery.

Even though they recovered the ball they weren't there yet.  They still had to get the ball into the end zone.  No easy feat with time ticking off the clock and no time-outs left.  As we know, they got their touchdown, but there was still 1:25 left --plenty of time for Aaron Rodgers to move the ball into Packers' kicker Mason Crosby's field goal range.  Therefore they needed a 2-point convert to give them a 3 point lead and safeguard themselves against a game-winning field goal by Green Bay and give themselves a chance in overtime.  Green Bay got a lot of pressure on Wilson on the convert attempt forcing him out of the pocket and into throwing a desperation rainbow across the field.  Surely Green Bay could easily make a play on it.  Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, already with 2 interceptions in the game was covering Luke Willson and looked like he could make a play on the ball that seemed to take forever to come down, but the ball just seemed to be so perfectly placed, in such a way that only Willson could get to it and the Seahawks had their 2pt convert and a 3pt lead.

After Aaron Rodgers did his thing and marched down the field, Crosby put up a successful field goal to tie the game.  Off to overtime we go...

In overtime, long story short, we see Russell Wilson complete the game winning touchdown pass to Jeavon Kearse, who to this point was having a dreadful game, targeted 4 times for 4 interceptions, two of which bounced off his hands.  Improbable.  Miraculous.  Inexplicable.

If you add the numbers, and I'm sure some number-cruncher out there as already tabulated the odds of that miraculous comeback ever happening again, you have to think that this is a team of destiny,

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